ROBOTS WON'T STEAL ALL THE JOBS — BUT THEY WILL TRANSFORM THE WAY WE WORK
INTRODUCTION
You’re probably familiar with panic books (such as Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of an Unemployed Future) and headlines (What Happens When Robots Replace Workers?) From HBR that proclaims that the future of employment is grim to the rise of automation technologies. In other words, according to the meme, the robots are taking all the jobs.
By “robots” we refer to all forms of automation technologies, including those that perform physical tasks, intellectual tasks or customer service tasks (which combine elements of physical and intellectual activities, but which constitute a different category in the era of client)). In fact, some impressive new technologies are becoming incredibly useful in a variety of organizational settings.
Take, for example, the Robot Baxter from Rethink Robotics, which is seen in the video below. Unlike traditional industrial robots, it is sure that the workers are close to Baxter, and it is also imperative. Because software engineers do not program Baxter; Human colleagues simply move the robot’s arm to teach him new actions and learn in real time.
According to the thesis of the work killer, the robots will displace the work at an alarming speed; In a widely cited study from 2013, Oxford Frey and Osborne scholars found that 47% of jobs in the United States were “at risk” of computerization.
But there are some flaws associated with the now common job killer meme. Cultural concerns about robots (as seen in the novel Robopocalypse, or the reboot of Battlestar Galatica) create an atmosphere in which people easily believe in the worst possible scenario.
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But the most alarming numbers have the least specific deadlines and the results associated with them; even Frey and Osborne write about their estimate that jobs at risk are simply “potentially automatable” (my emphasis) and that their time period is “for an unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two.” And the aggregate numbers of economic productivity do not suggest that automation is moving the needle toward human redundancy.
On the other hand, Forrester exposes a specific and nuanced point of view based on a large research initiative: we foresee that 16% of jobs will disappear due to automation technologies by 2025, but that jobs equivalent to 9% will be created.
The current jobs. Physical robots require repair and maintenance professionals, one of several categories of work that will grow in a more automated world. That is a net loss of 7%: much less than most forecasts, although there is still a significant number of job losses.
Finally, we observe the transformation of work: at what point in the future will a certain category of work be changed by the presence of automation technologies? Our analysis suggests that, by 2019, 25% of all work tasks will be downloaded to software robots, physical robots or customer self-service automation.
For most workers, robotic colleagues will change the way we approach our daily work, requiring new methods of job training, administration, financial reporting systems and the like.
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